The Grand Départ of the 2024 Tour de France in Florence is still eight months away but many of the main contenders are already known, with the many of the names in the sport expected to target the yellow jersey next July.
As ever, Cyclingnews has created this form ranking for the big favourites, with regular updates through the season and into the Tour de France.
We will rank the Tour de France contenders by their form and performances when the season gets going and as the countdown begins to the Grand Départ in Tuscany.
Now it's time to run the rule over the contenders for the maillot jaune for the first time, from Jonas Vingegaard to Enric Mas.
1. Jonas Vingegaard
- Team: Jumbo-Visma
- Age: 26
- Tour Experience: Winner in 2022 and 2023, runner-up in 2021
Jonas Vingegaard established himself alone at the top of the Tour de France favourites after claiming his second yellow jersey with an even more dominant performance at the 2023 edition.
He produced a time trial performance for the ages on stage 16 to distance Tadej Pogačar before removing any doubt with a brutal follow-up on the queen stage in the Alps just 24 hours later.
The Dane was at the 2024 route presentation in Paris and was excited about such a difficult route that has a brutal third week filled with altitude metres. The GC battle to play out right to the final moment. The final stage time trial from Monaco to Nice arrives after back-to-back high alpine stages which on paper look like prime Vingegaard territory.
There won’t be any challenge to his established overall leadership at Jumbo-Visma due to the departure of Primož Roglič and a team filled with super-domestiques is likely to support him in France.
Sepp Kuss will surely be back on duty as his main lieutenant in the high mountains, with Wout van Aert perhaps keeping him safe on flat stages and the contentious gravel stage.
2. Tadej Pogačar
- Team: UAE Team Emirates
- Age: 25
- Tour Experience: Winner in 2020 and 2021, runner-up in 2022 and 2023
Pogačar arrived at the 2023 race as Vingegaard's biggest rival but the Dane’s superiority in the high mountains cemented his position as the current best Grand Tour rider in the world.
Pogačar was hampered in the lead-up to the Tour by a broken wrist at Liège-Bastogne-Liège and disrupted training but was only Vingegaard’s equal for the first two weeks of racing.
The Slovenian famously uttered the words “I’m gone, I’m dead” before the key portion of the Col de la Loze as he cracked for the second consecutive year on a high-altitude climb.
Stage 18 to Isola 2000 will be of similar danger for Pogačar. with a trio of climbs all over 2000 metres altitude. These have proved to be his rare kryptonite throughout his already illustrious career.
The final stage is a time trial and he's no stranger to snatching the yellow jersey on a late time trial as we saw in 2020 but after losing 1:38 to Vingegaard in the uphill ITT at the last Tour, he will have some work to do during the winter.
Reports have been circulating about Pogačar attempting a possible Giro d’Italia-Tour de France double in 2024 but he confirmed that “the main goal in 2024 will be the Tour de France” in a recent interview with Cyclingnews.
3. Primož Roglič
- Team: Bora-Hansgrohe
- Age: 34
- Tour Experience: Runner-up in 2020, fourth in 2018, three stage wins
Having fallen down the pecking order at Jumbo-Visma, as Vingegaard ascended to sole leadership, Roglič opted to move to Bora-Hansgrohe for 2024.
At 34, the Slovenian may be entering the twilight of his career but is far from finished after only joining the WorldTour in 2016. He could mount a dangerous challenge to his former teammate and compatriot for the yellow jersey.
Roglič’s most memorable moment from the Tour is his collapse at the final hurdle in 2020 at the hands, or legs, of Pogačar up the Planche des Belles Filles. There are also two painful crashes.
Roglič want to change his track record before he hangs up his wheels, and the German team will provide him the best support squad possible.
The route of the 2024 Tour de France suits Roglič in similar ways to Vingegaard and Pogačar. He seems to bridge the gap in terms of abilities, is able to compete with the Dane on the steepest climbs and sprint at similar explosive speeds to Pogačar for bonus seconds.
His crashes and subsequent abandonments in 2021 and 2022 will perhaps make him incredibly weary of the unpredictable gravel stage 9 but Roglič is known to be a fighter, as he showed when he came back from adversity to win the 2023 Giro d'Italia.
4. Remco Evenepoel
- Team: Soudal-QuickStep
- Age: 23
- Tour Experience: Never taken the start
The hope of a nation. That is the expectation now upon Evenepoel’s young shoulders. He won Belgium’s first Grand Tour for 44 years at the Vuelta in 2022 and a lot more since then, raising expectations sky high.
However that 2022 Vuelta triumph is the bright spot among his four Grand Tour starts, which have recently been disappointing, and stifled either through inconsistency or illness.
If Evenepoel is to compete with the best mentioned above, he has to step up and be more consistent. There can be no repeat of his complete capitulation at this year’s Vuelta if he wants to be considered in the same light as the Pogačar and Vingegaard in Grand Tours.
Two individual time trials should aid his GC ambitions in 2024, and his steady climbing tempo seems better suited to the more regular climbs in France compared to those in Spain.
Soudal-QuickStep may not be a Grand Tour super team but Evenepoel will have the support of Mikel Landa as a committed domestique for the hardest mountain days in 2024.
5. Carlos Rogríguez
- Team: Ineos Grenadiers
- Age: 22
- Tour Experience: 5th on debut in 2023 and a stage win
The young Spanish rider will lead Ineos Grenadiers at the 2024 Tour de France after his breakthrough maiden appearance in 2023.
He stole a march on stage 14 to take a stage win but couldn’t hang onto the podium after a late crash allowed the Yates twins to overtake him come the final mountain stages.
Yet his performance was so good, that it spurred the British team into overdrive to ensure his signature was retained for 2023 having missed out on Roglič and Evenepoel. Despite a pre-contract signed with Movistar, Ineos Grenadiers secure his future until 2027 with competing at the Tour set as his main goal.
Geraint Thomas also renewed with the British team and will like the time trial kilometres in the 2024 Tour de France but Ineos know they need to invest in the future to compete at the Tour and Rodríguez looks the most likely to develop into a real challenger at just 22.
6. Juan Ayuso
- Team: UAE Team Emirates
- Age: 21
- Tour Experience: Never taken the start
Juan Ayuso is the second rider on this list from UAE Team Emirates but dual-leadership is becoming more prevalent in the peloton.
Pogačar will have a strong team around him no matter what, but Ayuso could offer an attacking option to force Vingegaard and Jumbo-Visma into spending useful energy. Of course, Adam Yates could also play this role but Ayuso’s ceiling could potentially be higher come July and Yates may be forced into a more domestique role.
The Spanish rider’s credentials speak for themselves, following a similar path to Pogačar. He secured a podium finish at the Vuelta at just 19 and backed it up with fourth at this year’s race behind the Jumbo-Visma trio of Kuss, Vingegaard and Roglič.
He stated ahead of the Madrid Criterium that "the idea is to make my debut in the Tour next year and see how it goes." This lack of pressure could be key to his success.
7. Simon Yates
- Team: Jayco AlUla
- Age: 31
- Tour Experience: Fourth in 2022, two stage wins, best young rider in 2017
Yates came into the 2023 Tour de France with his form unknown due to stomach problems in the spring but hit the ground running with a second-place finish behind his brother Adam on the opening stage.
He rose to contention as the race developed, despite losing time in a late crash on stage 8, and eventually finished fourth thanks to aggressive days in the break and attacking Rodríguez with his twin brother on stage 20.
On his day his climbing is on par with the best Grand Tour contenders and his much improved time trial ability could give him the edge on the others fighting for the podium.
He was the fourth-best GC rider in the time trial during the 2023 Tour. Considering the 2024 route, the former Vuelta winner will be dreaming of the podium come the final stage in Nice.
8. Richard Carapaz
- Team: EF Education-EasyPost
- Age: 30
- Tour Experience: Third in 2021
The Olympic Champion’s first season with his new team didn’t go to plan as serious illness early in 2023 and then a crash on stage 1 of the Tour de France ruined any mounting challenge at the first time of asking. However, he should arrive at the 2024 race with a smoother run-in and sole leadership for the second year running.
It will have been nearly two full years since Carapaz completed a Grand Tour when the Grand Départ rolls around, but the Ecuadorian’s record prior to the Vuelta in 2022 is incredibly consistent.
For four years running between 2019 to 2022, he finished on the podium of a Grand Tour, including a Giro win and third place at the Tour behind Vingegaard and Pogačar.
If Carapaz can arrive on form and stay on his bike, he’ll be hard to overlook.
9. Adam Yates
- Team: UAE Team Emirates
- Age: 31
- Tour Experience: Third in 2023 and won the opening stage in 2023
Adam Yates reached a career-best result at the Tour in 2023 and rounded out the podium behind his teammate Pogačar and Vingegaard. All while riding as a domestique for the Slovenian and often being the last teammate remaining for the GC favourites.
It may seem unfair to have Yates this low down given his third-place finish in 2023 but with Ayuso and João Almeida also staking their claim for a spot on the eight-man UAE Team Emirates Tour roster, there are limited protected places remaining.
Yates could take sole leadership at either the Giro or Vuelta and try to achieve a maiden Grand Tour victory which has eluded his solid palmarès as of yet.
10. David Gaudu
- Team: Groupama FDJ
- Age: 27
- Tour Experience: Fourth in 2022
David Gaudu will be the best French hope at the 2024 Tour de France but failed to kick on from a stellar fourth-place finish in 2022, slipping to ninth in the last edition.
He seemed off his best for much of the race but did produce a surprisingly strong time trial into Combloux to finish tenth.
If he can return to his 2022 form where he was only bettered by Vingegaard, Pogačar and Thomas, he could be right in the fight for the podium.
Perhaps the removal of drama after Arnaud Démare moved to Arkéa-Samsic will clear his focus and allow him to return to his top form in 2024. Pinot is also no longer around to cast a shadow over his younger teammate.
11. Enric Mas
- Team: Movistar
- Age: 28
- Tour Experience: Top-six finish in 2020 and 2021, DNF in 2022 and 2023
Mas suffered the same fate as Carapaz in 2023 by abandoning due to a crash before he could even try and mount a GC challenge on the first stage.
His form leading up to the Tour also wasn’t where it should have been given his brilliant end to the 2022 season, so it's questionable he would’ve been close to the top riders.
He will be desperate to bounce back from a lacklustre 2023 and should arrive as the sole leader for Movistar again after they missed out on signing Carlos Rodríguez and lost young prospect Matteo Jorgenson to Jumbo-Visma.
He will have the returning Nairo Quintana at his services, with the returning Colombian prepared to work for Mas as he returns to the World Tour.
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